John Chambers, the legendary CEO of Cisco Systems Inc. turned venture capitalist, first bet on artificial intelligence (AI) in 2017 with investments in Uniphore and Rubrik Inc., and he has doubled down since. He’s also predicted, with eerie precision, developments in AI, cybersecurity, the U.S. economy and the geopolitical climate the past few years.
It all comes with the job, of course. A great deal of his mission as a VC is to bet on the future, and he’s more than happy to share his crystal ball annually. Last year, he accurately foresaw the accelerated trajectory of AI, the continued under-investment in cybersecurity, the rise of India as a preeminent tech superpower in lieu of China, and a recession-free economy.
This year? “M&A (mergers and acquisitions) will heat up. AI will substantially improve results across all industries. Overall productivity will increase at least 5% because of AI. India and the U.S. will pass China as the world’s two leading tech countries and biggest economies. U.S. markets will be strong, and we spur a return of IPOs in the second half,” Chambers said in a rapid-fire delivery of what he expects in 2025.
We are at the start of the decade of AI, Chambers said, and those who “don’t keep pace” — especially with startups — are doomed to die. By 2030, he believes 70% of the Fortune 500 will go by the wayside. “We are in the midst of the biggest tech transition ever,” he said. “From reading about it to living it, AI is at the center of our lives. A few years ago, most people couldn’t spell it.”
A wave of AI agents from Microsoft Corp., Salesforce Inc., ServiceNow Inc., Adobe Inc., Cisco, LinkedIn and others will usher in a boom for online orders, customer service, sales and marketing, logistics and finance, he said. (An astounding 82% of large enterprises plan to integrate AI agents within the next three years, according to a recent Capgemini survey of 1,100 executives at large enterprises.)
But the gains will only be achievable if a greatly overlooked aspect of AI expansion, cybersecurity, is addressed.
“Under-investment in security around AI will cost companies, with a price paid for deepfakes, ransomware and penetration of our telecom companies,” Chambers said during a 40-minute Zoom interview on Monday. “When I ask chief information security officers how much they have increased their security budget, most say 5% or less. Their approach is often too piecemeal and not architectural.”
Developments with China, meanwhile, have put klieg lights on relations between the U.S. and President-elect Donald Trump. Threat of tariffs of up to 60% against goods from China will greatly impact tech companies who glean a big chunk of business from the mainland and consequently steer the U.S. to more strategic partnerships with India on supply-chain matters, according to Chambers.
What is more, escalating tensions between China and Taiwan underscore the importance of semiconductors, and the paths that NVIDIA Corp. and TSMC will take to alleviate impact on their businesses. The focus will shift to manufacturing in the U.S. and TSMC’s endeavors in Arizona, he added.
“Everything is moving at terribly fast speed with AI, and we should expect no less than the same the next few years,” Chambers said.
